How did we decide whom to call, and where did we get their numbers? Our poll started with the voter file, a data set of nearly every registered voter in the country. We call voters off this list, which makes our poll a “registration-based sample.” Not every pollster does this. […] Read more »
Live From the Battleground Districts: Polls of the Key Races for House Control
Over the next two months, The New York Times will talk to more voters than ever before. It starts this afternoon, when we’ll publish the first New York Times Upshot/Siena College polls of the most competitive battlegrounds in the fight for Congress. But there’s a twist. None of these polls […] Read more »
Gallup podcast: McCain, Mueller, midterms and more
President Donald Trump often refers to polls, but just how accurate are his tweets about them? What will have a larger effect on midterm election outcomes — presidential approval or economic confidence? How many Democrats react positively when they hear the word “socialism”? Frank Newport and Gallup Senior Editor Lydia […] Read more »
The digital campaign: In 2018, the rules have changed
Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum didn’t seem to have a prayer of winning last week’s Democratic gubernatorial primary in Florida. Gillum’s opponents spent nearly 15 times as much as he did, and late polls had him trailing badly. But Gillum spent much of his campaign war chest on the hottest outreach […] Read more »
8 questions for the midterm elections: A blue wave or not?
Campaign 2018 begins the final stretch this week. All but a few states have finished their primaries, and the general election ballots are set almost everywhere. The stakes are difficult to overstate. Republicans today control the White House, the House and Senate. President Trump dominates the scene. But Democrats could […] Read more »
Poll Hub: Arizona & Florida: Breaking Down the Primary Results
That’s a wrap! The Poll Hub team breaks down Tuesday’s midterm election primaries in Arizona and Florida. Was Martha McSally’s win in the Republican primary for U.S. Senate in Arizona really a slam dunk? And surprise! Andrew Gillum won the Democratic primary for Florida governor. What happened? Plus the Poll […] Read more »