Speculation of a Republican primary challenge to President Donald Trump lurks as he prepares for his reelection campaign. In this episode of Poll Hub, we turn a historical eye to incumbent primary challenges and explain why approval rating matters but not in the conventional sense. Then, the number of pets […] Read more »
All the Best Polls Agree with Me: Bias in Evaluations of Political Polling
Public opinion polls play a central role in American politics–they dominate headlines, shape candidate messaging, and inform the electorate. Given the potential impact of polls on political decision making, it is important to understand how the public makes sense of polling results. On what basis does the public decide whether […] Read more »
A new poll shows a spike in pro-life sentiment. Don’t panic — or declare victory.
On Monday, Marist released a poll sponsored by the Knights of Columbus that showed sudden, dramatic gains for the pro-life side of America’s long abortion fight. The poll showed that Americans are evenly split on whether they identify as pro-life and pro-choice at 47 percent each. That would be a […] Read more »
Response rates in telephone surveys have resumed their decline
After stabilizing briefly, response rates to telephone public opinion polls conducted by Pew Research Center have resumed their decline. In 2017 and 2018, typical telephone survey response rates fell to 7% and 6%, respectively, according to the Center’s latest data. Response rates had previously held steady around 9% for several […] Read more »
What our transition to online polling means for decades of phone survey trends
From the 1980s until relatively recently, most national polling organizations conducted surveys by telephone, relying on live interviewers to call randomly selected Americans across the country. Then came the internet. It has taken survey researchers some time to adapt to the idea of online surveys, but a quick look at […] Read more »
When you see a big change, doubt it
Faced with a big change in responses to a particular question, some announce a major shift in public opinion and scour the world in search of a cause. By contrast, when I see a big jump in the numbers, as my staff will attest, I respond by saying, “Let’s figure […] Read more »