One of the perks that comes with commissioning polls is that you generally get to spin the results. That’s most definitely true with a new poll billed with this screaming headline: “NEW MARIST POLL MAKE DRAMATIC AND SUDDEN MOVE TOWARD PRO-LIFE LABEL.” The poll sponsor in question was the Catholic […] Read more »
Nobody Knows Who Will Be the 2020 Presidential Nominees
Peter D. Hart, the respected Democratic pollster who has perfected his trade through his work in the past 15 presidential campaigns, candidly warns against the predictive value of polls taken this far ahead of any presidential election. At this stage, so long before voters actually vote, according to Hart, poll […] Read more »
Living with Uncertainty
Given the problems with polls, do they accurately predict elections? The answer is they usually do. Their assumptions need to be more or less correct and their samples inclusive, which is harder than it has been in the past. Nobel Prize winning physicist Richard Feynman said, “It is scientific only […] Read more »
Patrick Caddell, pollster who helped Carter channel voter disaffection, dies at 68
Patrick Hayward Caddell, a political pollster who advised several Democratic presidential candidates but became a pundit on conservative media late in his career, and who was a singular voice in favor of channeling the antiestablishment sentiments of voters, died Saturday at age 68 from complications of a stroke, according to […] Read more »
Patrick Caddell, Self-Taught Pollster Who Helped Carter to White House, Dies at 68
Patrick Caddell, the political pollster who helped send an obscure peanut farmer named Jimmy Carter to the White House, later became disillusioned with fellow Democrats and finally veered to advise supporters of Donald J. Trump, died on Saturday in Charleston, S.C. He was 68. … While Mr. Caddell was considered […] Read more »
The Self-Selecting Internet
The most obvious solution to the problems with telephone polling is to administer polls online. That is a solution to the burgeoning cost of polling but not to the problem of whether the sample is representative of the electorate. Internet polling is less expensive and many companies provide polling panels […] Read more »