… It’s all interesting and the stakes are obviously enormous. It’s just that … we might want to be wary about reading too much into things. Since 2008, the states of Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina have held 15 party primary contests. Of those 15, only five times were […] Read more »
What Iowa’s Best Pollster Thinks About 2020
Right now, many of the Democratic primary candidates are traveling through Iowa, shaking hands with voters as they make their way to the Iowa State Fair. In the coming days, just about every candidate running for president will stop by the Des Moines Register soapbox to give a stump speech. […] Read more »
Polls Since The Second Debate Show Kamala Harris Slipping
Polls since last week’s Democratic debate haven’t shown the sort of dramatic swings that we saw after Round 1 — but they do show some shifts. In particular, they show further downward movement for Kamala Harris, who had already lost much of her bounce following the first debate. CONT. Nate […] Read more »
Don’t Assume Trump’s Approval Rating Can’t Climb Higher. It Already Has.
Donald J. Trump doesn’t always seem like a candidate focused on expanding his base of support. He may have done so anyway. The share of Americans who say they have a favorable view of him has increased significantly since the 2016 election. CONT. Nate Cohn, New York Times Recent polls: […] Read more »
Trump Outperformed His Popularity in 2016. That Might Not Happen in 2020.
The specter that most haunts Democrats as we hurtle toward the 2020 election is that Donald J. Trump managed to get himself elected president in 2016 despite terrible, historically unprecedented (for a major-party presidential nominee) unpopularity, as measured by favorability ratios (Gallup had him at 36 percent favorable/61 percent unfavorable […] Read more »
Don’t just poll – research!
Political practitioners too often see polls and focus groups as the automatic choices for political research. Polling tells you about aggregate attitudes. Strategic reliance on polling grew with dependence on television – a medium that used to reach most everyone and so aggregate attitudes and message receptivity made sense. In […] Read more »