While President Trump has remained nationally unpopular with a negative net approval rating, his approval rating on the economy has been consistently better. But as concerns over Trump’s trade war with China drive the stock market’s volatility, the president appears to be risking one of his greatest assets. In this […] Read more »
Poll Hub: Geography Matters
In an increasingly politically polarized society, many people point a finger at gerrymandering as the cause. However, there may be an alternate answer. On this week’s episode of Poll Hub, Jonathan Rodden, Professor of Political Science and Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University, discusses his new book, […] Read more »
What early polls can — and can’t — tell you about who will be the Democratic nominee
Presidential primaries are notoriously hard to forecast. … But we’re not completely in the dark about who is going to be the Democratic nominee. National primary polls taken at this point in the process don’t have a great track record of picking the eventual winner. But one of the candidates […] Read more »
Behind Nate Silver’s war with The New York Times
Nate Silver made his name as The New York Times’ data guru, creating the methodology that predicted Barack Obama’s reelection. Now, Silver’s method seems to be to stir up trouble for the Times. … Silver’s persistent criticism of the Times, stretching back to the last presidential election, has long struck […] Read more »
Americans Accurately Estimate Trump’s Approval Rating
Americans are generally aware of what President Donald Trump’s job approval rating is, estimating it as 46% in a late July Gallup poll, when his actual rating in the same survey was 42%. When Gallup conducted the same exercise in 1999 for Bill Clinton, Americans’ estimate was even closer — […] Read more »
How we check numbers and facts at Pew Research Center
Pew Research Center is a fact tank — a nonpartisan research organization committed to creating a foundation of facts to help inform policymakers and the public about important issues, without taking policy or advocacy positions. To that end, all of the material we release, from reports to blog posts to […] Read more »