Presidential primaries are notoriously hard to forecast. … But we’re not completely in the dark about who is going to be the Democratic nominee. National primary polls taken at this point in the process don’t have a great track record of picking the eventual winner. But one of the candidates in the top three or four in the national polls often does become the nominee. And while true polling longshots — those polling at zero percent or close to it — do still have some chance of winning, the historical record doesn’t provide much reason for optimism. CONT.
David Byler, Washington Post