… Twenty Democratic candidates are set to debate in Detroit this week, as countless Democratic voters wonder, with knotted stomachs, whether anyone will emerge to defeat Donald Trump, in November, 2020. So what do the early polls tell us? I asked around and found an array of specialists firm in […] Read more »
When to pay attention to 2020 forecasts
… According to number-crunching from Christopher Wlezien and Robert Erikson, political scientists at the University of Texas and Columbia University, pre-election polls make for poor predictors until the close of summer in an election year, by which point both parties have held their nominating conventions. In their book “The 2012 […] Read more »
Sometimes Trump trashes polls. Sometimes he hypes them. Sometimes they’re the same poll.
In President Trump’s politics, there are no permanent polling allies, just permanent polling interests. There is no consistent metric by which he gauges his presidency other than cherry-picking metrics in which his presidency is seen in a favorable light. … He’s been a bit cranky with Fox of late, given […] Read more »
Is It The Economy, Stupid?
This week’s Poll Hub podcast digs deep into the data from our latest national survey of American adults. Why do a majority of Americans say President Trump is doing a good job on the economy but say they will definitely vote against him in 2020? The Poll Hub team has […] Read more »
How To Read 2020 Polls Like A FiveThirtyEighter
Beware: Reading polls can be hazardous to your health. Symptoms include cherry-picking, overconfidence, falling for junky numbers and rushing to judgment. Thankfully, we have a cure. Building on an old checklist from former FiveThirtyEight political writer Harry Enten, here are some guidelines you should bear in mind when you’re interpreting […] Read more »
Perils of Polling: Does Kamala Really Lead Joe?
Fans of U.S. Sen. Kamala Harris rejoiced last week when the well-known Quinnipiac University Poll found her leading former Vice President Joe Biden in the race for the Democratic presidential nomination in California. They don’t seem to be touting the result much, however — maybe because the survey also found […] Read more »