One of the early truisms of the 2020 Democratic nominating contest was that Democrats wanted nothing more than to beat President Trump. There’s typically a connection between overall support in a primary and the perception that a candidate has the best chance of winning in the general election, but this […] Read more »
What To Look For In The Fourth Democratic Debate
Since last Monday’s podcast, a number of new impeachment polls have published, and they don’t look good for President Trump. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew takes a look at the new impeachment polling and reviews some of the main developments since last week. The team […] Read more »
The surprising fluidity of the 2020 Democratic field
Working with the polling firm YouGov, CBS News has been conducting a tracking poll of support for candidates for the Democratic 2020 presidential nomination in early-voting states. In other words, the pollsters go back to the states over and over to gauge support — and, in fact, they go back […] Read more »
Warren’s Rise Hasn’t Come At Biden’s Expense
… I’m not going to give you one of those grandiose overviews of the Democratic primary. Maybe we’ll be more in the mood for one after this week’s debate. Nope, I just want to make a narrower point: Joe Biden is still doing reasonably well in the polls. Elizabeth Warren’s […] Read more »
How to know which impeachment polls to believe – and which to skip
Senator Chuck Schumer holds up the White House transcript of a call between President Donald Trump and the president of Ukraine. AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin Michael Traugott, University of Michigan Pollsters are trying their best to track public opinion about the House Democrats’ decision to initiate an impeachment inquiry against President […] Read more »
Why it’s Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren and then everybody else
… Right now, there’s little doubt that Biden and Warren are the top tier in the Democratic primary fight. With the exception of Sanders, no one is even close to Biden and Warren nationally. The question now is how likely are we to be looking at the potential nominee when […] Read more »