The more things change, the more things stay the same. With the Sept. 18 disclosure by The Washington Post that President Trump urged the president of the Ukraine to investigate Hunter Biden’s business dealings in the country, many have predicted that this time will be different. They proclaim that the […] Read more »
True or False? A look at President Trump’s criticism of a recent Fox News Poll
On this week’s episode of Poll Hub, President Donald Trump recently blasted the Fox News Poll after it showed majority support for impeachment. Was the criticism warranted? And, following the president’s criticism, the New York Post released its own analysis of the poll. But, was that analysis scientifically rigorous and […] Read more »
A More Decisive Electorate May Be Making Early Polls Better
With the 2020 election approaching, each week brings a new set of presidential poll results. As perennial as the election cycle itself, the arrival of early data is accompanied by analysts and forecasters wrestling with its value. In particular we wonder how much early polling can tell us about the […] Read more »
Only once has Gallup seen more support for removing a president. Nixon was gone four days later.
When President Trump’s 2020 campaign claims Democrats have always wanted to see Trump impeached, it’s not entirely incorrect. While the Democratic Party’s establishment has only relatively recently embraced the idea of impeaching Trump, Democrats broadly — that is, voters — have long approved of the idea. … New data from […] Read more »
Which is the right question?
Survey questions asking whether voters want to impeach and remove Donald Trump from office are now mesmerizing pundits and pols. Important as it seems, it may be the wrong question on which to focus. … The preeminent indicator of a president’s political health is his approval rating. CONT. Mark Mellman […] Read more »
Trump is at war with statistics — and it’s going about as well as you’d imagine
… “Now the do-nothing Democrat con artists and scammers are getting desperate,” Trump said in Minneapolis. “Thirteen months, they got to move fast because they’re not beating us at the polls and they know it despite the phony, despite the phony polls that you see all the time. They have […] Read more »