… As I pointed out in July, there is a slew of evidence that more moderate candidates have done better than those closer to ideological poles in House elections over the last decade. Now, the difference isn’t so great as to make Warren unelectable, and there are other factors at […] Read more »
Voters agree with polls that favor their candidates
With the presidential election a year away, pollsters will barrage the country with poll questions to get the pulse of the voters about the candidates. But how these media-reported polls are received by the public is often viewed with skepticism. In fact, a new study by researchers at the University […] Read more »
Republicans Claim Trump Closed a 17-Point Gap in Kentucky. That’s Not Quite What Happened.
It seemed in many ways like nothing new: another high-ranking Republican official offering a dubious assertion about the potent political powers of President Trump. But a claim from the chairwoman of the Republican National Committee, Ronna McDaniel — that Mr. Trump helped lift Gov. Matt Bevin of Kentucky from a […] Read more »
A Poll Symphony or Cacophony?
On this week’s episode of Poll Hub, our crackerjack team of experts assesses the latest national and state Democratic primary polls. What do they mean in this stage of the race? And, the proportions may have changed, but the Democratic National Committee continues to use public opinion polls as a […] Read more »
The State Of The Polls, 2019
Much maligned for their performance in the 2016 general election — and somewhat unfairly so, since the overall accuracy of the polls was only slightly below average that year by historical standards — American election polls have been quite accurate since then. … Does that mean everything is looking up […] Read more »
When it comes to polls, mode matters
… Until recently, what physicians call “heroic measures” — high risk therapies, undertaken as a last resort, with the understanding that anything less would surely result in failure — were sufficient to produce accurate polls. That’s changing though as low response rates now combine with radically different “telephone” habits. CONT. […] Read more »