About two weeks before Election Day 2016, the New York Times tweeted its most recent forecast for the outcome of the presidential election. Hillary Clinton had a 93 percent chance of winning, the forecast suggested, leaving Donald Trump a less than 1-in-10 chance of success. … That election was certainly […] Read more »
Do today’s polls show who will win the Dem nomination?
FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver looks at what polling at this point in previous election cycles could tell us about the 2020 election. This Week, ABC News Read more »
Iowa is anyone’s game in a historically messy field
… Mess is the only word I’d use to describe the current state of affairs in Iowa. There is no clear front-runner, and the closer we get to the caucuses, the hazier the crystal ball seems to be getting. With three months to go until Iowa, any of the top […] Read more »
Poll Hub: Party Representation
On this week’s episode of Poll Hub, we speak with Courtney Kennedy, Director of Survey Research for Pew Research Center. The topic on the table is why polls do not include the same number of Republicans and Democrats. And, yes, they are representative. Then, we turn to sample size. A […] Read more »
Will killing Al-Baghdadi give Trump a boost in the polls? Probably, but it won’t last
John A. Tures, LaGrange College After former Islamic State Group leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi was killed in a U.S military action, speculation began on whether or not President Donald Trump would get a boost in public opinion surveys as a result. My political science research with my students shows that […] Read more »
Some Academics Quietly Take Side Jobs Helping Tobacco Companies In Court
… These days, tobacco companies no longer try to claim that cigarettes aren’t harmful — in fact, in an ironic reversal, a favorite legal defense in current cases is the argument that nearly everyone was aware of the dangers, even back in the 1950s. To shore up this controversial claim, […] Read more »