With another Democratic debate behind us and with the Iowa primary caucuses inching closer, Democrats are continuing to debate the candidates’ electability — and who has the best shot at beating President Trump. Much of this debate focuses on polls that ask Americans how they would vote if the president […] Read more »
PolitiFact’s guide to understanding public opinion polls
As the 2020 election pushes ahead, voters will be seeing poll results in their news feed — lots of them. But not all polls are created equal, and it can be hard to put the results into the proper context. PolitiFact participated in a workshop hosted by the Poynter Institute […] Read more »
A Field Guide to Polling: Election 2020 Edition
While survey research in the United States is a year-round undertaking, the public’s focus on polling is never more intense than during the run-up to a presidential election. This essay is our attempt as survey methodologists and social science researchers to assess the state of the craft in 2019. “Can […] Read more »
About Buttigieg … And That Iowa Poll
The latest Des Moines Register poll was released this weekend, and it shows South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg leading Sen. Elizabeth Warren, former Vice President Joe Biden and Sen. Bernie Sanders in Iowa. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew digs into this poll and discusses […] Read more »
The difference between good and bad state polls, explained
A poll released Tuesday conducted by the broadly respected Atlanta Journal-Constitution offered the surprising finding that 54 percent of voters in Georgia support the impeachment inquiry into President Donald Trump, with voters split 47-47 so far on the question of actual removal. … The bad news for optimistic Democrats is […] Read more »
How America views impeachment as public hearings begin
House Democrats would argue that the impeachment inquiry underway in the House stands apart from politics. There certainly is a case to be made that President Trump’s actions in relation to Ukraine raise fundamental questions about presidential power and conduct that supersede partisan voting. Fundamentally, though, impeachment is a political […] Read more »