General election campaigns provoke a lot of attention and criticism of opinion polls. Some of that is sensible and well-informed… and some of it is not. This is about the latter – a response to some of the more common criticisms that I see on social media. Polling methodology is […] Read more »
How do pollsters predict UK general election results?
FT data journalist John Burn-Murdoch explains how researchers such as YouGov use MRP, or multi-level regression post-stratification polling, as the best way of showing how big national polls translate at the local level – and to predict who will win the most seats. Financial Times Read more »
Ipsos MORI UK Election 2019 Podcast, Ep. 4
Keiran Pedley is joined by Asa Bennett, of The Telegraph and author of the book Romanifesto. Ipsos MORI Read more »
With Impeachment Inquiry in Full Swing, Public Opinion Remains Split
… Even more than with most issues, opinions on impeachment divide along partisan lines. While public opinion has fluctuated some since House leaders announced the impeachment inquiry two months ago, overwhelming majorities of Democratic and Republican voters continue to line up behind their respective parties. As a result, support for […] Read more »
The unexciting reality of impeachment: Very few minds have been changed
… This idea that the Democratic push to impeach Trump is starting to buckle has been at the center of conservative media for days. Trump himself touted poll numbers suggesting that Americans were turning against the idea — poll numbers that, by all appearances, he pulled from thin air. … […] Read more »
Thanksgiving doesn’t have to be fraught. There’s plenty Americans agree on.
It’s another Trump-era Thanksgiving, and the country is more divided than ever. Americans are split evenly on impeaching President Trump, some polls suggest a tight race between Trump and his eventual general election opponent, and Democrats are nowhere close to a consensus in their presidential primary. Contra the popular trope, […] Read more »