The first phase of the impeachment process is over, and according to our impeachment tracker, public opinion on impeaching and removing President Trump has remained largely steady through most of November, with roughly 47 percent of Americans supporting impeachment and 44 percent opposed. And in our latest survey with Ipsos, […] Read more »
Why Harris Dropped Out
After an initially promising bid, California Sen. Kamala Harris dropped out of the Democratic presidential primary race Tuesday. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew assesses why she stumbled in the polls and dropped out relatively early. FiveThirtyEight Read more »
Why do so many people believe Trump will win?
… Clinton won the popular vote by just under 3 million votes, a far more substantial popular vote victory than Gore had, yet she lost more crucial states than Gore did. Lesson learned. The focus this cycle is much more on the Electoral College and the key states that add […] Read more »
Americans are split on impeachment, just like they were before the public hearings
Throughout more than two months of the Democrats’ House impeachment inquiry, two critical questions have loomed: How will the American public react to what it uncovers? And will it help or hurt President Trump’s chances at reelection in 2020? So far, four dozen national and state polls have been conducted […] Read more »
Impeachment polls and the risk of a self-fulfilling prophecy
… Impeachment polls matter; as I’ve noted many times (and will surely have to note again), impeachment is more a political process than a judicial one. Poll movement over time matters, too. Nonetheless, the widespread notion that support for impeachment is stagnant is a selective interpretation. As Nieman Lab’s Joshua […] Read more »
Here’s why the impeachment polling isn’t moving
The impeachment inquiry into President Donald Trump has had little impact on public opinion. In late November, just like in October, 50% of Americans wanted to impeach and remove Trump from office in CNN/SSRS polling. Moreover, Trump’s approval ratings remain in the low 40s, and impeachment really hasn’t shaken up […] Read more »