Pundits have long tried to put themselves in the shoes—actually the heads—of voters, attempting to understand what they’re thinking and why, as well as how they are likely to react to various circumstances. But with Democrats seemingly unified by just one thing—unseating President Trump—the fixation on electability is turning many […] Read more »
What Iowa Voters’ Second-Choice Picks Can Tell Us
Polling in presidential primary campaigns is notoriously fluid. In an effort to gauge movement among voters as they might change their mind and as candidates pop in and out of the race, pollsters will often ask voters about both their first-choice candidate and their backup. This question has been particularly […] Read more »
Biden holds a big lead over Trump with a key demographic: Cynics
A feature of modern presidential politics is a grim one: Voters are generally asked to choose between two candidates they might not like very much. … As it turns out, while people who liked Trump and didn’t like Clinton voted heavily for Trump (as you’d expect), the current president also […] Read more »
Looking to Iowa
If you think the Iowa caucus results are now settled, you have been paying inadequate attention to the history of this remarkable ritual of American politics. And with Iowa unsettled, the contest for the Democratic presidential nomination is far from over, because, as regulars are no doubt sick of reading, […] Read more »
The Democratic Primary, According To The Early States
In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew previews the official FiveThirtyEight polling averages for the 2020 Democratic primary, including how the race looks nationally and in the early states. Vice President Joe Biden and Sen. Bernie Sanders have both been incredibly steady in the polls, while Sen. […] Read more »
Why the next 100 days are critical for Trump
The next 100 days will be critical to understanding whether President Donald Trump will win a second term in office. His approval rating has been consistently low during his first term. Yet his supporters could always point out that approval ratings before an election year have not historically been correlated […] Read more »