Polls have consistently shown that President Trump is pretty unpopular, with only about 42 percent of the American public approving of the job he is doing as president. These numbers are much lower than what one might expect given the bustling economy. But does the standard presidential approval question actually […] Read more »
Joe Biden’s Poll Numbers Are Steady, but Are They Immovable?
Former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr.’s presidential campaign has been defined by what it’s not as much as by what it is. He hasn’t made waves with big-ticket policy proposals, and he has mostly avoided skirmishing with his Democratic rivals. And so, nine months into his campaign, Mr. Biden […] Read more »
The Science Of Polling In 2020 And Beyond
The Iowa caucus is less than three weeks away and polls this week show that Vice President Joe Biden has a six point lead over other primary challengers in the Democratic race. Six days ago, a different poll had Senator Bernie Sanders up by three points in Iowa, and at […] Read more »
Poll Hub: Oh, Iowa!
It’s feast or famine! A bunch of new Iowa polls have been released, but their results greatly differ. Why, and can we accurately get a sense of where the Iowa contest stands? We pick up those questions on Poll Hub. But, first, Tuesday was the last chance Iowa caucus-goers had […] Read more »
Here’s How the Democratic Race Could Change Between Today and Iowa
The Iowa caucuses are three weeks away. It’s worth taking a look at recent history to get a sense of how fluid the dynamic is in this period before live voters show up. The answer is: It depends. I looked at polling numbers three weeks out from the 2016, 2012, […] Read more »
A Four-Way Pileup In Iowa
The latest polling in Iowa shows a tight, four-way race just three weeks away from caucus day. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew updates their thinking about who is likely to win there, and about how a win in Iowa could affect the rest of the […] Read more »