… Over the past several days, two major polls of Iowa have been released. At a glance, they seem to offer starkly different pictures of what’s likely to happen in next month’s caucuses. A poll from CNN, the Des Moines Register and Mediacom, conducted by Selzer & Co., has Sen. […] Read more »
Recent Poll May Be Underestimating Bernie Sanders’s Strength in Iowa
Two of the nation’s best pollsters have recently weighed in on the state of the Iowa Democratic race, with very different results. One subtle methodological choice might explain part of the difference, and on balance there is reason to think Bernie Sanders might be a bit stronger in one of […] Read more »
The secret origins of presidential polling
Senator Huey Long at the Capitol in 1935. Everett Historical/Shutterstock.com Edwin Amenta, University of California, Irvine In the run-up to its January 14 debate in Des Moines, Iowa, the Democratic National Committee called on private polling firms to conduct more polls. To make it to the debate stage in Des […] Read more »
Presidents used to get an approval rating bump after military strikes. Here’s why Trump likely won’t.
Presidents have historically seen a bump in their approval ratings during a military crisis, but the partisanship that has gripped the country in recent years has stunted that traditional bump in the polls. That evidence suggests President Donald Trump’s approval rating — which has lingered in the lower to mid […] Read more »
If Joe Biden wins Iowa, ‘he’s off to the races’
FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver shares his big takeaways from the FiveThirtyEight Democratic primary forecast. This Week, ABC News Read more »
Election Update: Sanders Now Leads A Wide-Open Iowa Race
Welcome to your first FiveThirtyEight Election Update of the 2020 primary cycle! This is a column in which we’ll talk about the primary race through the lens of our forecast model, which we released earlier this week. … We don’t necessarily plan to publish an Election Update as a result […] Read more »