CNN and The Des Moines Register will release their final Iowa caucus poll on Saturday, February 1, providing key insight into where Democratic presidential candidates stand just two days before the caucuses on February 3. CONT. Kate Sullivan, CNN Read more »
What Polling Tells Us About Bernie Sanders’s Chances
At this point in 2016, Bernie Sanders was competitive in Iowa but had no clear path to the nomination. Four years later, he finds himself in an enviable position: rising in the polls, enjoying the most resources, and facing relatively few attacks from his campaign rivals. CONT. Nate Cohn, New […] Read more »
Trump’s electoral strength is in the details
Much of the attention to our new CNN/SSRS poll will rightly focus on the fact that a majority (51%) of Americans want the Senate to convict and remove President Donald Trump from office. It’s an amazingly high number when put in the context of past impeachment sagas. Yet, to me, […] Read more »
The Electoral Cases For — And Against — The Four Leading Democrats
In a live recording, the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast crew debates the electoral cases of the four leading candidates in the Democratic primary. They also discuss the concept of electability and whether voters are biased against voting for a woman for president. Plus, they play a round of “Guess What Americans […] Read more »
The First Post-Debate Polls Are In! And They’re … Pretty Weird.
The first handful of polling since Tuesday night’s debate is out. But it doesn’t tell a terribly consistent story. Pretty much whichever Democrat you’re rooting for, you can find some polls to be happy about and others that you’d rather ignore. CONT. Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight Read more »
The Iowa caucuses look like a hot mess
… The Iowa caucuses are now a little more than two weeks away, and the electoral picture is as messy as ever. They are set to be the most unpredictable caucuses in more than a decade, and we could have multiple candidates claiming victory. If you look back over time, […] Read more »