The New Hampshire Democratic primary is increasingly looking like a dual front-runner race as former Mayor Pete Buttigieg leaps ahead to join Senator Bernie Sanders at the front of the pack, according to newly released polls. CONT. Giovanni Russonello, New York Times Read more »
Caucus Confusion: A discussion of the pitfalls and misfires of the Iowa caucuses
Uh oh, Iowa! Monday night’s Iowa caucuses left journalists, pundits, and pollsters dumbfounded. What went wrong? What impact will this have on the future of the Iowa caucuses? Patrick Murray, Director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute, joins the discussion. Murray also addresses the decision to pull the Des Moines […] Read more »
Little Solace for Democrats in New Polls
Democrats have now officially kicked off voting in the race to face President Trump. Meanwhile, the president is emerging from a painful, divisive impeachment process. Yet as they spend the rest of this week unpacking the Iowa caucus results and shifting their attention to New Hampshire, it’s the Democrats who […] Read more »
Conditions are ripe for a contested Democratic convention in 2020
The 2020 Iowa Democratic caucuses were historic. They look to be the first caucuses in which at least four candidates reached or exceeded 15% of the vote. In fact, they mark the first time in any Democratic primary or caucuses that at least four candidates reached or exceeded at least […] Read more »
You’ll Never Know Which Candidate Is Electable
… Months of talking about the primary — and wondering whether candidates will eventually win the general election — has made electability a hot buzzword of the 2020 election. … To understand it better, researchers have looked at a couple of different kinds of social collisions: What voters like in […] Read more »
Has Trump’s approval rating really shot up to 49 percent? Probably not.
Polls suggest that Donald Trump has weathered his impeachment remarkably well. The talk of the past couple of days among election prognosticators has been a Gallup poll that pegs Trump’s job approval at 49 percent, the highest Trump has ever registered in that poll. … But is Trump really getting […] Read more »