The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast crew considers how the results — so far — of the Iowa caucuses will affect the Democratic primary. The team also checks in on the campaigning underway in New Hampshire and debates the meaning of the Senate’s vote to acquit President Trump. FiveThirtyEight Read more »
Our Post-Iowa Primary Forecast Is Up, And Biden’s Chances Are Down
Now that we finally have some clarity on Iowa’s results — with 86 percent of precincts reporting — we’ve turned our primary model back on, including its estimates of the potential fallout from Iowa. The model shows former Vice President Joe Biden’s chances of winning a majority of pledged delegates […] Read more »
This Iowa Poll Was Never Published. It’s Still Influencing What You Read.
The Des Moines Register spiked its poll Saturday night, but by the next day it seemed most reporters here had seen the numbers — or something purporting to be the numbers. … Here are what some reporters told me about how the poll affected their work: CONT. Ben Smith, BuzzFeed […] Read more »
Our Final Forecast For The Iowa Caucuses
With just a few hours to go before the voting starts in Iowa, it’s time for us to freeze the FiveThirtyEight primary forecast model! So here are our final estimates of each candidate’s chance of winning a majority of pledged delegates and their chances of winning Iowa ahead of tonight’s […] Read more »
What To Expect From The Iowa Caucuses
It’s finally time for the Iowa caucuses! In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast’s “Model Talk,” Nate Silver discusses the latest data and what unknowns could still lead to a surprise result. FiveThirtyEight Read more »
Why the Iowa caucuses are important
The Iowa Democratic caucuses are just hours away and with them, the true start of the 2020 election. But just what can a single state with a relatively small number of delegates up for grabs tell us about the rest of the primary season? If history is any guide, the […] Read more »