After an extremely confusing week in the Democratic presidential primary, I have some bad news: New Hampshire might not resolve as much as you think. That’s for two reasons. First, our study of past primaries finds that the bounces that result from New Hampshire are only about half as large […] Read more »
3 political handicapping mistakes to avoid
A few days ago, I heard a reporter who isn’t an authority on elections or voting behavior say that former Vice President Joe Biden’s problem is that his “message” hasn’t worked. Behold the first of three common political handicapping mistakes: putting too much weight into the message and not the […] Read more »
The FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast Previews The New Hampshire Primary
At a live show in Manchester, New Hampshire, the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast crew previewed what to expect from the New Hampshire primary. They also debated the likelihood of a contested convention and played a round of “Guess What Americans Think.” FiveThirtyEight Read more »
Beware of the Polls
As the Democratic race shifts into high gear and the fallout from the impeachment trial settles in I have a respectful and heartfelt cautionary admonition about polling data: Caveat emptor. Let’s begin with Iowa. Not one poll before the Iowa caucuses accurately captured what was happening. Most of the closing […] Read more »
Democrats look to New Hampshire after chaotic Iowa caucuses
Democratic presidential hopefuls took to the stage for another debate Friday as they looked for an edge in the lead-up to the New Hampshire primaries following last week’s chaotic Iowa caucuses. Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute, joins Hari Sreenivasan for more on the presidential race and […] Read more »
Why Buttigieg needs an Iowa-sized bounce in New Hampshire
The big question coming out of Iowa and New Hampshire this year is whether former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg will benefit from a bounce that catapults him nationally. Iowa and New Hampshire aren’t important because of the delegates lost or won. Very few delegates are at stake. They […] Read more »