A contested convention looks even more possible after New Hampshire

The 2020 New Hampshire primary is in the books, and one of the messiest primaries in recent history seemingly got even messier. Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders did win as expected. He remains the national front runner in polling and fundraising. But Sanders got just 26% of the vote and finished […] Read more »

The Moderate Pileup, and the Sanders Path to the Nomination

The results of the Iowa and New Hampshire contests amount to a strategic victory for Bernie Sanders, fracturing his opposition and opening a path for him to win the nomination. But the results do not leave him in a dominant position. His support in national polls remains in the low-to-mid […] Read more »

Sanders Won The New Hampshire Vote. So How Did ‘Klobucharge’ Win The Narrative?

In a late night installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew reacted to Sen. Bernie Sanders’s win in the New Hampshire primary. They also looked at the parts of the electorate that powered Pete Buttigieg and Sen. Amy Klobuchar to strong second and third place finishes, respectively, and asked […] Read more »

The primary in New Hampshire came down to the last few hours of the race

… Elections are usually fairly easy to predict. Candidates hold leads for weeks on end and go on to victory. That’s not what happened in New Hampshire. There, a race that had been the focus of attention for months was probably only determined in the last 12 hours before polls […] Read more »

Candidates say they want to build momentum with voters – but what is that actually worth?

Before the primary, Buttigieg said his campaign had the ‘strongest momentum.’ AP Photo/Mary Altaffer Daniel Palazzolo, University of Richmond and Ernest B. McGowen III, University of Richmond “I’ve got the ‘Big Mo,’” said George H. Bush after winning the Iowa caucuses in 1980. “We are the campaign with the strongest […] Read more »