… When Quinnipiac University asked voters how they felt about Bloomberg in December, he was barely above water with members of the party whose nomination he sought. By which I mean his net favorability was only slightly positive; only a bit more Democrats viewed him favorably than unfavorably. Just past […] Read more »
Movin’ On
The Poll Hub team is movin’ on from New Hampshire but not before we assess the performance of the polls and the outcome of the Democratic presidential primary. What does it all mean as the candidates head West and South? We have our take. And, twenty-seven Marist College students joined […] Read more »
Dems Should Temper Their Disappointments
One of the most amusing things about politics is how binary people tend to be in their thinking. Whether it is partisans and true believers, independents, or political reporters, things are often either wonderful or horrible for any given party or candidate. Gradations in between, important distinctions, or changing circumstances […] Read more »
A Contested Convention Becomes More Likely
This week, we deep-dive into the results from the New Hampshire primary. Then, as the campaigns go west, we get Harry’s Forecast for Nevada. Plus, we discuss Mike Bloomberg’s rise in recent polls, along with the renewed scrutiny from his time as New York City mayor. The Forecast Fest Read more »
Just how big was Klobuchar’s surge?
Klobusurge. Klobucharge. Klomentum. Whatever you want to call it, it finally materialized on Tuesday night. Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) finished third in the New Hampshire primary with roughly 20 percent of the overall vote, vaulting past former vice president Joe Biden and Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.). And even though Sen. […] Read more »
Failures of Punditry (and Polls)
Last month I wrote what I called my New Year’s “irresolutions” – a set of observations on the Democratic field that I cloaked in uncertainty. I promised to come back and identify those that were wrong. There are two standouts in that regard: (1) Joe Biden’s staying power is far […] Read more »