Senator Bernie Sanders has improved his standing in national polls since his victory in the New Hampshire primary, raising the possibility that he could amass a commanding or even insurmountable delegate lead on Super Tuesday in two weeks. CONT. Nate Cohn, New York Times Read more »
Why Bernie Sanders is the current favorite for the Democratic nomination
The Democratic presidential race is about to enter hyper speed — and Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders is currently in the driver’s seat. Much attention has been paid to former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg’s recent surge, but Sanders has built out a clear national lead and is the favorite ahead […] Read more »
Assessing the Risks to Online Polls From Bogus Respondents
More than 80% of the public polls used to track key indicators of U.S. public opinion, such as the President’s approval rating or support for Democratic presidential candidates, are conducted using online opt-in polling. A new study by Pew Research Center finds that online polls conducted with widely-used opt-in sources […] Read more »
The Narrow But Real Window for a Joe Biden Comeback
Considering how Joe Biden collapsed from front-runner status to a disappointing fourth-place finish in Iowa and a fifth-place finish in New Hampshire, he does not appear to be a safe bet for a comeback. But here and there, you can see signs that Biden might be an undervalued stock. CONT. […] Read more »
Bernie Sanders Is on the Rise. But How High Can His Numbers Go?
Senator Bernie Sanders has a solid base of support. That much is clear. And he has done a remarkably good job of boxing out Senator Elizabeth Warren for the support of the party’s left wing. He is now the choice of nearly half of Democratic voters who identify as “very […] Read more »
Pollsters got it wrong in the 2016 election. Now they want another shot.
… A cocktail of problems led to the polling misses of 2016. … But while pollsters received the majority of the blame, perhaps more condemnation ought to have fallen on the forecasters, who turn pollsters’ data into predictions. CONT. Rob Arthur, MIT Technology Review Read more »