Former New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg received the green light and made the Democratic debate stage on Wednesday night. On this week’s episode of Poll Hub, we assess Bloomberg’s debate performance and whether or not he punched through as a true force to be reckoned with this election season. […] Read more »
Why Nevada could surprise us
Finding a public poll of the Nevada caucuses has been like trying to find a needle in a haystack. … The data we do have shows Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders should be favored. Even when former Vice President Joe Biden was ahead in Nevada, it was rarely by more than […] Read more »
We lack the data to predict Nevada’s outcome. Be wary of pundits’ gut instincts.
… In a normal election, this lack of concrete information wouldn’t be a problem: Nobody ever died because they didn’t see enough Nevada polling. But primaries aren’t normal elections. The trajectory of the race is often influenced by media-created “expectations” and narratives about “momentum.” And in Nevada, many political pros […] Read more »
Should Bloomberg Exist?
This week, we recap the fiery ninth Democratic debate. Then, we dig into the Nevada landscape leading up to the caucus this weekend. Plus, we discuss Bernie Sanders’ frontrunner status. The Forecast Fest Read more »
Democrats are picking a nominee based on the factor they’re worst at evaluating
The incident that served as the best predictor of the 2020 Democratic presidential primary actually happened in 2011. That October, then-Gov. Rick Perry (R-Tex.) was leading the Republican field as the party tried to identify a candidate who could beat incumbent President Barack Obama. In a Washington Post-ABC News poll, […] Read more »
Five things we can say based on the latest polling about the Democratic race
A trio of national polls conducted after the New Hampshire primary have provided a lot of fresh data that gives us a sense of how Democrats view their choices for president. Here are five of the most interesting findings from those polls. CONT. Emily Guskin & Scott Clement, Washington Post Read more »