42% of media coverage of the 2016 election focused on the horserace. Photobank Gallery/Shutterstock.com Michael Traugott, University of Michigan Polls have become an essential part of the news, particularly in the run-up to an election. Reports on polls feed into what’s often called “horserace coverage” – who is ahead or […] Read more »
Bernie Sanders looks electable in surveys — but it could be a mirage
… Why does Sanders look similarly electable to leading moderates in polls against Trump? We fielded a 40,000-person survey in early 2020 that helps us look into this question with more precision. … Our data (laid out in an academic working paper here) also found what polls show: that Bernie […] Read more »
Can Bernie Sanders really beat Trump? His pollster makes the case.
Now that Sen. Bernie Sanders has become the clear favorite for the Democratic nomination, the Vermont independent’s rivals — and many in the Democratic Party — are sounding loud, clanging alarms about his viability against President Trump. Those alarms, of course, are in some cases self-interested, but a thorough airing-out […] Read more »
Some candidates do better than the polls and others worse. We break it down.
Pre-election polls are more important this primary election cycle than ever before. Last week, Michael Bloomberg was given a place on the debate stage in Las Vegas because of his rising support in pre-election polls. Polls provide more than just interesting talking points — they can have direct consequences for […] Read more »
Trump’s 2020 position is improving
… The Democratic presidential primary is holding most of the attention in the electoral world right now. Democratic primary voters desperately want to beat Trump. The latest data shows, however, that defeating the President won’t be easy. Trump’s approval rating is going up at the right time. As I noted […] Read more »
Nevada Caucuses Could Be a Preview of What’s to Come
The Nevada caucuses on Saturday will be the first contest of the Democratic presidential race with a racial makeup that (very roughly) reflects the population of the nation as a whole. So while the actual delegate haul is rather small, the results could be read as a preview of what’s […] Read more »