In mid-June, we moved both Iowa and Ohio from Likely Republican to Lean Republican. At the time, we noted that while the polls were looking shaky for Pres. Trump, they were also catching him at what could be his lowest point of the cycle. “We’ll know soon enough if this […] Read more »
State Polls Give Biden Strong Lead in Electoral College as First Debate Looms
Key Points• There is a strong relationship between the 2020 presidential polls in the states and the 2016 results.• This relationship makes sense given that there is an incumbent on the ballot. In these kinds of elections, we see a very high degree of consistency in the results at the […] Read more »
Biden maintains lead heading into debate
The first presidential debate is Tuesday, marking the beginning of the final stretch of the 2020 campaign. It’s a fine time to take a step back and look at the big picture. The average of polls shows Joe Biden with a seven-point lead nationwide, giving him the largest lead of […] Read more »
The polling danger for Trump: Erosion among independents and those with college degrees
… The 2020 race has been unusually stable, with Biden holding a healthy polling lead for months. … In the 2016 presidential race, Post-ABC polling was more variable. From June to October, there was a 9-point spread in the margin between Trump and Hillary Clinton in our polls, from a […] Read more »
How to watch the debates like a pro
The worst part of any presidential debate is the post-debate spin. Fortunately, there are five simple rules, backed by historical polling data, that can give you a sense of how the first meeting between President Trump and Joe Biden might affect the race. Rule No. 1: Keep an open mind. […] Read more »
There you go again
Journalists love to identify turning points–the gaffe that sank a campaign, or the snappy comeback that snatched victory from the jaws of defeat. Academic studies regularly find no evidence that individual events make much difference, but the pundits are undeterred. CONT. David Weakliem, U. of Connecticut Read more »