No Republican has ever won a presidential election without taking Ohio, and Donald J. Trump carried it with ease in 2016, performing strongly with white voters in almost every demographic. If he doesn’t capture the state in November, it’s hard to see him winning the election — but the polling […] Read more »
Battleground Bonanza: Polls of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin
On this week’s episode of Poll Hub, we assess the presidential contest in the battleground states of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. What’s different from 2016? Where is Biden’s weakness? We examine the latest NBC News/Marist Polls. Then, we go behind the “what” and look at the “why.” The Marist Poll […] Read more »
Trump Tests Positive For COVID-19
President Trump announced early Friday morning that he and first lady Melania Trump had tested positive for COVID-19. In this emergency edition of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, science writer Maggie Koerth joins the crew to discuss what’s possible going forward. FiveThirtyEight Read more »
Biden Lead Looks Firmer as Midwest Moves His Way
Key Points• With the first debate now in the books, we have close to 20 rating changes across the Electoral College, Senate, and House.• Joe Biden is now over 270 electoral votes in our ratings as we move several Midwestern states in his favor.• Changes in the battle for Congress […] Read more »
Trump’s Chances Are Dwindling. That Could Make Him Dangerous.
President Trump’s quest to win a second term is not in good shape. He entered Tuesday night’s debate with roughly a 7- or 8-point deficit in national polls, putting him further behind at this stage of the race than any other candidate since Bob Dole in 1996. … At a […] Read more »
What Polls Say About the 2020 Race as Biden and Trump Square Off
… Chris Wallace, the Fox News host who will moderate the debate on Tuesday, has announced the six topics on which it will be focused: the Supreme Court, the coronavirus outbreak, the integrity of the election, the economy, “race and violence in our cities,” and the respective political records of […] Read more »