President Donald Trump is down by a significant margin to former Vice President Joe Biden with just three weeks to go in the 2020 campaign. One of his apparent answers to climb out of that hole is to continue to feature Dr. Anthony Fauci in an ad, which the director […] Read more »
Forecasting the 2020 U.S. Senate Elections Using Presidential Polling Data
Key Points• Senate elections have become increasingly tied to presidential voting results.• This shows up in this year’s polling, as the margins for states’ presidential and Senate races are closely linked.• An analysis of these polling data suggest that Democrats are likely to achieve a net gain of between one […] Read more »
Biden tops 270 in POLITICO’s Election Forecast
Joe Biden has reached 270 electoral votes for the first time since POLITICO’s Election Forecast debuted late last year. In addition to a double-digit national lead, Biden has built a stable advantage in the three Great Lakes States that put Donald Trump over the top in 2016: Michigan, Pennsylvania and […] Read more »
A Guide for Journalists to the Reporting of Opinion Polls
The British Polling Council is today publishing A Quick Guide for Journalists to the Use and Reporting of Opinion Polls. This publication has been designed to provide practical guidance for anyone unfamiliar with polls who finds themselves charged with interpreting and writing up an opinion poll in today’s media environment. […] Read more »
Joe Biden’s polling better than any challenger since 1936
Former Vice President Joe Biden is dominating President Donald Trump in the latest polls. No, the election is not over yet, and Trump still has a non-negligible chance of winning. But a look through history reveals that Biden is in a better position at this point than any challenger since […] Read more »
The Gamble
Long before COVID-19 or the economic collapse that followed in its wake, President Trump gambled his re-election prospects on the assumption that his base would be enough to ensure his re-election. Since the first days of his presidency, Trump rewarded those who already liked or voted for him and ignored […] Read more »