President Donald Trump’s decision to nominate Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court has not been a game changer in the presidential race. He is still well behind former Vice President Joe Biden with less than three weeks to go. But while Trump is losing, Barrett is winning. She’s very […] Read more »
Can We Trust the Polls?
In 2016, the public — particularly Democrats — felt utterly let down by pollsters and election forecasters like Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight. But Silver stood by his model, saying that disappointment was a result of an overly-optimistic reading of his forecast, which had given Trump a 30-percent chance of winning. […] Read more »
This Election, Republicans Should Take Nothing for Granted
Whether you’re a Republican or a Democrat, liberal or conservative, predisposed toward labor or business, your eyes should now be squarely pointed to the races below the presidential level. … For some time, pollsters of all stripes have been seeing that Trump’s political problems were metastasizing and now infecting many […] Read more »
In the Game
On this week’s episode of Poll Hub, former Vice President Joe Biden leads President Donald Trump by 11 points in our new NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll. What’s driving his lead? Can Trump change the trajectory of the race, and do Americans think the Trump Presidency is a success or failure? Then, […] Read more »
Election 2020: A Fortnight and Five Days Away
Key Points• With 19 days to go before the election, Joe Biden’s lead in the presidential race remains steady, although his national lead is bigger than his leads in the most crucial swing states.• In the Senate, Republicans appear to be getting some traction against Sen. Gary Peters (D-MI), although […] Read more »
Epic miscalls and landslides unforeseen: The exceptional catalog of polling failure
Wrong. Underwood Archives/Getty Images W. Joseph Campbell, American University School of Communication The question looms in nearly every U.S. presidential election, even in this year’s race: Could the polls be wrong? If they are, they likely will err in unique fashion. The history of election polling says as much. That […] Read more »