It was just after 12:30 a.m. on election night, and Fox News was under fire. “Arnon, we’re getting a lot of incoming here, and we need you to answer some questions,” the network’s chief political anchor, Bret Baier, said pointedly. “Shoot!” Arnon Mishkin replied, his face breaking into a smile. […] Read more »
A Q&A with a historian of presidential polls
Voters wait to cast their ballots Tuesday at Johnston Elementary School in the Wilkinsburg neighborhood of Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. Jeff Swensen/Getty Images W. Joseph Campbell, American University School of Communication “Epic miscalls and landslides unforeseen: The exceptional catalog of polling failure” is the headline on one of scholar W. Joseph Campbell’s […] Read more »
What We’ll Know, and When We’ll Know
This year, the rise of mail voting will make election night much harder to follow. In most states, the results will be heavily skewed at various points of the night, depending on when a state counts mail ballots, in-person early voting or Election Day voting. In other words, the results […] Read more »
Who wins the Senate? Watch the presidential race
Senate races across the country are converging with the trend in the presidential race in that same state, underscoring the increasingly parliamentary nature of American elections. In 2016, for the first time since the direct election of all senators began in 1914, every Senate race finished the same way as […] Read more »
Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Final Ratings for the 2020 Election
Key Points• Our final Electoral College ratings show Joe Biden at 321 electoral votes and Donald Trump at 217.• Democrats are narrow favorites to capture a Senate majority, 50-48 with two Toss-ups — the two Georgia races, both of which we think are likely to go to runoffs.• We have […] Read more »
Biden’s Favored In Our Final Presidential Forecast, But It’s A Fine Line Between A Landslide And A Nail-Biter
… Biden’s standing is considerably stronger than Clinton’s at the end of the 2016 race. His lead is larger than Clinton’s in every battleground state, and more than double her lead nationally. Our model forecasts Biden to win the popular vote by 8 percentage points, more than twice Clinton’s projected […] Read more »