The choice is as clear as it gets. Do you believe President Donald Trump or your eyes? … I suppose it’s possible that all of the polls are wrong, even though they’re conducted by various survey research firms and publications using different methodologies. To see Trump winning, you must believe […] Read more »
Forecasting the US elections — as of Nov. 2
Right now, our model thinks Joe Biden is very likely to beat Donald Trump in the electoral college. CONT. The Economist The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack Read more »
How the exit polls will work in a pandemic
… Exit polling traditionally involves interviews with a randomly selected sample of voters conducted as those voters leave their polling places. Unlike pre-election polling, where voters can only be identified using screening questions or a history of voting on a voter file, meeting voters where they are ensures that those […] Read more »
There’s no such thing as a shy Trump voter
Trump voters are not liars. As a Democratic pollster and campaign strategist, I feel strange typing these words. But it is required to debunk the “shy Trump voter” myth. The shy Trump voter theory proliferates in political circles these days. This theory suggests that polls are failing to measure President […] Read more »
POLITICO’s final Election Forecast: Biden in command, Senate up for grabs
The 2020 election is ending in a frenzy of swing-state travel and warnings of a chaotic vote count befitting this head-spinning year in American politics. But lower the din for a moment, and you’re left with a presidential contest that’s been remarkably stable. The same is true of POLITICO’s Election […] Read more »
What Trump Needs to Win: A Polling Error Much Bigger Than 2016’s
If the polls are right, Joe Biden could post the most decisive victory in a presidential election in three and a half decades, surpassing Bill Clinton’s win in 1996. That’s a big “if.” … Of course, it’s possible the polls could be off by even more than they were four […] Read more »