After Donald Trump’s surprise victory in 2016, the 2020 election became a referendum on both Trump’s first term and the pollsters and forecasters who appeared to underestimate his chances four years ago. That first question hasn’t yet been settled. But many were quick to declare a verdict on the second. […] Read more »
2020’s polling miss? These Republicans say they saw it coming.
A misread of who is likely to vote. An overreliance on party registration. Failing to reach voters where they’re most likely to respond — via text and email — in favor of a phone call. These are just some of the explanations for the great polling miss of the 2020 […] Read more »
Don’t kid yourself. The polls messed up.
… The forecasts were off. We were forecasting Biden to get 54.4% of the two-party vote and it seems that he only got 52% or so. We forecasted Biden at 356 electoral votes and it seems that he’ll only end up with 280 or so. We had uncertainty intervals, and […] Read more »
An embarrassing failure for election pollsters
Watching the presidential election returns on election night in retirement community of The Villages, Florida. Ricardo Arduengo/AFP via Getty Images W. Joseph Campbell, American University School of Communication Election polling is facing yet another reckoning following its uneven-at-best performance in this year’s voting. Although the outcome in the 2020 presidential […] Read more »
As in 2016, polls gave a misleading picture of the race. What happened?
As the results rolled in on Tuesday night, a feeling of déjà vu arrived along with them. Pre-election polls, it appeared, had been misleading once again. While the nation awaits final results from Michigan, Pennsylvania and a few other states, it is already clear — no matter who ends up […] Read more »
Sifting Through the Results So Far
… Amidst the highest turnout in modern history, both Biden and President Donald Trump turned out their bases and battled in an epic duel that remains undecided. In our final pre-election assessment, we warned of the possibility that many polls could be missing a significant share of the Trump electorate, […] Read more »