Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairwoman Cheri Bustos told House Democrats on a Thursday caucus call that she was “furious” about polls that misread the political environment, as the party suffered unexpected losses in the House. “I also want to say the thing we’re all feeling: I’m furious. Something went wrong […] Read more »
Another Black Eye For Polling Industry, Media That Rely On It
Nearly all election polls forecasted a blue wave. But when that failed to materialize, pollsters looked foolish — and the news organizations they partner with lost credibility too. David Folkenflik, NPR News The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign […] Read more »
The Political Scientist Who Warned Us About Polls
… Like the other big-name pollsters of the day, Elmo Roper and Archibald Crossley, Gallup predicted in 1948 that New York Attorney General Tom Dewey would rout President Harry Truman in the fall election. … No one relished this epic fail more than the distinguished Columbia University political scientist Lindsay […] Read more »
Bad polls, fake news, and that damned needle: Here’s how the media covered a twisty Election Night
That was quite a ride, wasn’t it? Or, rather, this election is quite a ride, given that it’s still going on. The quadrennial media rituals — “too early to call,” a sudden awareness of the nation’s counties, Steve Kornacki — all returned for the 2020 presidential election. As of Wednesday […] Read more »
Polling outlets draw fire after missing mark again
The polling industry and election forecasters suffered another embarrassing election night that will call into question the usefulness of public opinion surveys and horse race political coverage that appeared to once again underestimate President Trump’s support. Votes are still being tallied in critical battleground states, meaning the final verdict on […] Read more »
Interpreting the Early Results of the 2020 Election
What can the 2020 election teach us about polling and politics? On the afternoon after Election Day, Matt Grossmann hosts the first-ever live edition of the Science of Politics podcast with G. Elliott Morris, data journalist at The Economist to discuss where exactly the models went wrong (and what they […] Read more »