One of the hardest things to do in politics is to keep your voters engaged and motivated to vote in the midterm elections after your party wins a presidential election. This is especially true if your party controls all three branches of government. In midterm years, only the most committed […] Read more »
Looking at the wrong problem
… Now, I have been pretty clear in these pages that I think polling as a methodology no longer works the way people think. It is a rougher measure and can leave important groups out of the equation. It has value but it also has serious limits: It is far […] Read more »
American optimism is highest in more than 10 years
… The last year has been tough for a lot of Americans. Among other issues, the coronavirus dominated our lives, and there was a very contentious presidential election. But with the election in the rearview mirror and more people returning to their pre-pandemic routines, Americans are feeling a lot more […] Read more »
A Game of Inches
For the last two years, COVID has upended almost every aspect of our lives. Not since 9/11 has a singular event dominated American life. At the same time, even as Americans gave low marks to then-President Trump for his handling of the pandemic and currently approve of President Biden’s job […] Read more »
Inconclusive Studies of 2020’s Pre-Election Polling Problems Could Be Good for the Industry
Key Points• Following another presidential election in which pre-election polls often understated support for Donald Trump, the polling industry is once again trying to figure out what went wrong.• An American Association for Public Opinion Research task force pointed to a lack of education weighting in its post-2016 assessment, but […] Read more »
Back Home, Biden Returns to the Tough Stuff
Despite wall-to-wall media coverage of his first overseas trip as president, Joe Biden returned to Joint Base Andrews on Wednesday no better or worse than he was when Air Force One took off the previous Wednesday. To the disappointment of his conservative critics, who seemed to hope and even expect […] Read more »