… American democracy is facing two distinct threats, which together represent the most serious challenge to the country’s governing ideals in decades. The first threat is acute: a growing movement inside one of the country’s two major parties — the Republican Party — to refuse to accept defeat in an […] Read more »
The Economic Pit and the Political Pendulum: Predicting Midterm Elections
We were given the following prompt in July 2022 and asked to write a response: “The Economy, Stupid: Accepted wisdom has it that it’s the economy that matters to voters. Will other issues matter in the upcoming midterm elections, or will it really be all about the economy?” In the […] Read more »
A hard 2020 lesson for the midterms: Our politics are calcified
… Voters are increasingly tied to their political loyalties and values. They have become less likely to change their basic political evaluations or vote for the other party’s candidate. This is not just polarization but calcification. And just as it does in the body, calcification produces rigidity in our politics […] Read more »
The political numbers that explain the Abbott and DeSantis migrant decisions
Republican governors like Greg Abbott of Texas, and more recently Florida’s Ron DeSantis, have been making a habit of sending migrants located in their Sun Belt states to northern Democratic-voting cities. While there may be policy reasons for their decisions, there are clear political considerations as well. Both men, especially […] Read more »
Democrats Buoyed by Abortion and Trump, Times/Siena Poll Finds
Even as they struggle to persuade voters that they should be trusted on the economy, Democrats remain unexpectedly competitive in the battle for Congress as the sprint to November’s midterm election begins, a New York Times/Siena College poll has found. The surprising Democratic strength has been bolstered by falling gas […] Read more »
High Floors + Low Ceilings = Tight Races
Don’t be surprised between now and the midterm elections to see most independent political prognosticators being unusually cautious in their pronouncements (those in the partisan cheerleading roles will exhibit their predictable responses). After all, the trajectory of this campaign has already departed that of any midterm election in modern times. […] Read more »