Two months ago, we were deluged with seemingly dismal news for Democrats. Newsweek’s headline asked, “Are Democrats Losing Their 2018 Midterm Advantage?” If the question itself left anyone in doubt, the headline went on to offer an answer: “A New Poll Says Yes.” CNN claimed “Democrats’ 2018 advantage is nearly […] Read more »
Polling Still Points to Rough November for Republicans
If you trust the July 9-11 Fox News poll and the July 15-18 NBC News/Wall Street Journal survey — and I have no reason not to — the GOP still looks headed for a difficult election and the likely loss of the House. No, President Donald Trump’s voters are not […] Read more »
To crack Trump’s voter base, Democrats must focus on opportunity, not outrage
The first polling reactions to last week’s summit between President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Helsinki, Finland, should extinguish the last doubts, if any remained, that outrage over Trump’s behavior is likely to ever dislodge a meaningful portion of his core supporters. And that may encourage Democrats […] Read more »
The House Tilts Toward the Democrats
As soon as President Donald Trump was elected, the national political dynamics immediately changed. Democrats, somnolent in off-year elections in the Obama years (and also in 2016, at least in some key places), would re-energize. The historical burden of holding the White House transferred to the Republicans, and the president’s […] Read more »
The Next Generation of Republicans: How Trumpian are they?
When, in October 2016, it was time to build the border wall — or at least a plywood replica on the campus of Washington State University — the job fell to Jacob Heinen. He was only a freshman, but he was one of the few College Republicans who knew how […] Read more »
The Far Left And The Democratic Party
Since New York’s Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, a member of the Democratic Socialists of America, upset the Democratic incumbent in a primary for the House last month, the tension between the DSA and the Democratic Party has been in the spotlight. In this episode, the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast team debates the role […] Read more »