… While it is tempting to view elections as being decided in the moment, much of the groundwork is set in place decades earlier. Looking at survey data from the 1950s, political scientists observed that voters who came of age during the Great Depression identified as Democrats at much higher […] Read more »
5 metrics that suggest Democrats are poised for big wins 100 days to the midterms
We’re now just 100 days away from the midterms, and the big question on everyone’s mind is whether Democrats will net-gain 23 seats and gain control of the House of Representatives. A look at five different metrics suggests that Democrats are favored to take back the House, though each of […] Read more »
The 7 key factors defining the 2018 midterms
It will be a nationwide referendum on the Trump presidency. But that will mean very different things depending on what part of the nation we’re talking about. President Donald Trump is by far the biggest force driving politics in 2018. Trump has unleashed a fierce opposition yet has inspired loyalties […] Read more »
Polls show a return of Democrats’ ‘Big Blue Wall’
When President Donald Trump captured the White House in 2016, he won with an electoral map that showed a shift in long-standing voting patterns, hammering away at the Democrats’ “Big Blue Wall” of states in the upper Midwest. New state polls from Marist this week, however, suggest those older patterns […] Read more »
Scott Walker’s troubles highlight deeper GOP issues in governors’ races
… A Marist College poll gives Democrat Tony Evers a 54% to 41% lead over Republican Gov. Scott Walker in the Wisconsin gubernatorial election. This poll is more optimistic for Evers, the most likely Democratic nominee, than the only previous nonpartisan poll of the race. Walker led Evers by a […] Read more »
Georgia’s gubernatorial race may be the purest example of politics in the Trump era
Stacey Abrams isn’t yet a nationally known politician, but one sign that she could become one is her picture appearing on the cover of Time magazine’s latest issue. … The Time cover is indicative of the interest in the Georgia race. Few gubernatorial contests will attract as much attention or […] Read more »