The fight over Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh has been fiercely waged between the bases of both political parties, but it’s those senators stuck in the middle who find themselves in the most precarious position. As the confirmation hearings for Kavanaugh begin Tuesday, the pressure is increasing on a small […] Read more »
8 questions for the midterm elections: A blue wave or not?
Campaign 2018 begins the final stretch this week. All but a few states have finished their primaries, and the general election ballots are set almost everywhere. The stakes are difficult to overstate. Republicans today control the White House, the House and Senate. President Trump dominates the scene. But Democrats could […] Read more »
How big is the GOP’s Trump-can-shoot-a-guy-on-Fifth-Avenue caucus?
Matthew Miller’s reaction to the new Washington Post-ABC News poll Friday caught my eye. The poll showed just 18 percent of Americans believed President Trump should pardon Paul Manafort. “This is the ‘shoot someone on 5th Avenue’ caucus, and it’s much lower than Trump would have you believe,” the former […] Read more »
Ahead of midterms, Democrats lead in cash, candidates and voters
Labor Day traditionally begins the homestretch of a campaign season, or the moment when uninterested voters actually tune into the election. As the runners near the last turn in 2018, the numbers show some clear trends: An enthusiastic electorate, a diverse pool of candidates and a solid advantage for Democrats […] Read more »
Democrats’ uphill House climb isn’t as steep as we thought
… Importantly, the generic ballot is one of a number of tools that can be used to figure out how many seats each party will win in the House. On this measure Democrats have picked up ground since the beginning of the year. For a slew of reasons (gerrymandering, Democratic voters […] Read more »
Impeachment talk has perils for both parties
The recent convictions of President Trump’s former campaign chairman Paul Manafort and his longtime lawyer Michael Cohen have pushed talk of a possible impeachment proceeding to a new level. Right now, it’s potentially tricky territory for both parties. A new Washington Post-ABC News poll finds that 49 percent of all […] Read more »