Many of the individual race forecasts in the FiveThirtyEight Senate model, which launched on Wednesday, look pretty optimistic for Democrats. … But despite that, the model has Democrats as reasonably clear underdogs to take control of the Senate. Even though it’s more optimistic than the consensus about Democrats’ chances in […] Read more »
Surprisingly, the Senate Is Now in Play
I have argued repeatedly that while the House is up for grabs — and indeed likely to flip to the Democrats in November — the Senate is not in play. I now believe that it is, so I must revise and extend my remarks. Only about three weeks ago, I […] Read more »
Midwest Abandons Trump, Fueling Democratic Advantage For Control Of Congress
In a troubling sign for Republicans less than two months before November’s elections, Democrats’ advantage on the question of which party Americans are more likely to vote for in November is ballooning, according to a new NPR/Marist poll. The gap has widened to 12 percentage points, up from 7 in […] Read more »
Americans Are Shifting The Rest Of Their Identity To Match Their Politics
We generally think of a person’s race or religion as being fixed — and that those parts of identity (being black, say, or evangelical Christian) drive political views. Most African-Americans vote Democratic. Most evangelical Christians vote Republican. But New York University political scientist Patrick Egan has written a new paper […] Read more »
Nearly Half of Latino Voters Support Delaying Nomination Process for Supreme Court Nominee Kavanaugh
Less than two months before Latino voters head to the polls for the 2018 midterm elections, the National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials (NALEO) Educational Fund and Latino Decisions released the results of the second wave of its ten-week tracking poll of Latino registered voters. Results from the […] Read more »
How Brett Kavanaugh will collide with a changing America
Last week’s combative Senate Judiciary Committee hearings over Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh looked at times like a flash-forward to the racially infused politics that may increasingly consume the court, and the nation, through the 2020s. If the Senate confirms Kavanaugh, which still appears likely despite sharpening Democratic questions about […] Read more »