Republicans are far more likely than Democrats to view the Democratic Party as very liberal. And the pattern is similar, though less pronounced, in views of the GOP’s ideology: More Democrats than Republicans see the Republican Party as very conservative. CONT. Pew Read more »
House Polls Show Very Close Races but Also Hints of Democratic Strength
With just under two months until the midterms, the races that seem likely to decide control of Congress remain strikingly close, according to a first wave of New York Times Upshot/Siena College polls. To take over the House, Democrats need to wrest at least 23 individual districts from Republican control. […] Read more »
Democrats maintain lead in race for control of U.S. House; outside top tier, potential Democratic presidential hopefuls widely unknown
Democrats maintain a wide lead over Republicans in the race for control of the House of Representatives, a new CNN Poll conducted by SSRS finds, including a 10-point lead among those most likely to turn out this November. In a generic ballot test, 52% of likely voters back the Democratic candidate […] Read more »
Congressional Forecasts for 2018: Structure-X Models
We build here on our “Structure-X model,” successfully applied in 2014. We first generate a 2018 forecast from our classic structural model. Next, we adjust this forecast on the basis of expert judgments provided in Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales. CONT. Charles Tien (CUNY) & Michael S. Lewis-Beck (U. […] Read more »
The Seats-in-Trouble Forecasts of the 2018 Midterm Congressional Elections
The Seats-in-Trouble model of party seat change in national congressional elections (both on-year and midterms) is a hybrid election forecasting model. It combines the insights and comprehensive assessments of expert election analysts examining in depth the conditions of individual House and Senate contests with a rigorous statistical analysis of historical […] Read more »
Raw tensions over race and gender shape midterms, reflecting schism in Trump era
… Raw tensions over race, gender and personal identity are shaping battleground contests from Upstate New York to the Deep South, reflecting the deep schism in the country during the Trump era and the increasingly stark demographic divide between the two political parties. With just one primary day left, on […] Read more »