… If Democrats win the House, as we currently forecast, it will be because of women voters. The Democratic Party is currently benefiting from the largest gender gap on record for a midterm election. In an average of the last five live interview generic congressional ballot polls, Democrats hold a […] Read more »
Should you worry about American democracy? Here’s what our new poll finds.
In just two weeks, Americans will vote in a midterm election that may well decide what party controls Congress and the legislative agenda for the next two years. But as Americans head into this democratic exercise, some observers wonder whether the country has become dissatisfied with democracy. Young Americans seem […] Read more »
Ten Rating Changes as Democrats’ Enthusiasm Edge Narrows and Fundraising Advantage Widens
Two weeks out, district-level polls reflect a House battleground gradually polarizing along the lines of the 2016 presidential race. Democrats are maintaining leads over GOP opponents in upscale, Clinton-won “Whole Foods suburbs” of Chicago, Denver, Kansas City, Minneapolis and Northern Virginia. But Republicans’ numbers continue to improve in Trump-won districts […] Read more »
How to win an election these days? Be the most popular unpopular option.
We like to think about electoral contests as noble engagements in which voters pick between qualified candidates. That’s the ideal, right? Two respected community leaders offering themselves for consideration, debating the issues and allowing an informed electorate to choose between them. Uh, why are you laughing? CONT. Philip Bump & […] Read more »
Trump’s Approval Rating Is Up. Republican House Chances Are Down. Does That Make Any Sense?
Just in time for the Nov. 6 election, President Trump is posting some of the best job approval numbers of his presidency. His approval rating is currently 43.1 percent, according to the FiveThirtyEight average, the highest it’s been since March 2017. His disapproval rating is 52.0 percent, so let’s not […] Read more »
Many Possible Paths to a House Majority for Democrats, None Guaranteed
Democratic strength in mostly white, well-educated suburbs has stretched the Republican House majority to the breaking point. The good news for Republicans is it’s not clear that their majority has actually broken yet. The good news for Democrats is that the midterm playing field is big and diverse. There are […] Read more »