Now that the votes are in and mostly counted, how did we do? We’re looking at our results and those of other pollsters. We’re also talking about how poll products like forecasters and aggregators misled people about the likelihood of a red wave. CONTINUED Poll Hub podcast, Marist Institute for […] Read more »
It wasn’t just “the economy stupid”—it was abortion
… Inflation is unpopular with both parties—there is no pro-inflation and anti-inflation party. In fact, if we’ve learned anything about politics in our polarized time it’s that voters see almost all issues through their partisan lens. Democrats worried about inflation could think that Joe Biden was dealing with it and […] Read more »
The Whackadoodle Factor (with Jonathan Martin)
The midterm special hackathon extravaganza is finally here and we couldn’t think of a better guest to join us than POLITICO’s Politics Bureau Chief and Senior Columnist, Jonathan Martin. The Hacks discuss the results we have from the midterms and breakdown what that means for control of the Senate, House, […] Read more »
For Republicans, Crime Pays, No Matter What Else Happens
In the months leading up to Election Day, the Republican Party conducted an advertising campaign focused on crime and social disorder, on looting and shoplifting in big cities across the country. They tried to associate Democrats with “defund the police” messages that are, in fact, voiced by a very small […] Read more »
David Shor’s (Premature) Autopsy of the 2022 Midterm Elections
The Democratic Party entered the 2022 midterms saddled with a historically unpopular president and an inflationary economy. And yet the party is exiting them as the election’s clear winner. In fact, Democrats put up one of the best midterm performances for an in-power party ever. David Shor believes that he […] Read more »
Biggest loser of the midterm elections? The media.
… Political journalists were suckered by a wave of Republican junk polls in the closing weeks of the campaign. They were also swayed by some reputable polling organizations that, burned by past failures to capture MAGA voters, overweighted their polls to account for that in ways that simply didn’t make […] Read more »