… According to the Edison Research preliminary exit polls, independents were without question the most critical voter group in this election. In fact, they made up 31 percent of the electorate, the largest percentage going back as far as the 1980 election. While the exit polls showed independents growing, it […] Read more »
Is Trump Still a Viable Candidate? Yes and No.
Even before Donald Trump announced he was seeking the presidency again, last week’s election results showed Republicans how difficult it will be to escape the former president’s gravitational pull. Widespread voter resistance to a Republican Party refashioned in Trump’s image offset disenchantment with the economy and President Joe Biden’s performance […] Read more »
Trump has the same advantages among Republicans he’s always had
… Analysts and pundits will tell you Trump can’t keep his base. I’m not one of them. Trump was not joking when he said he could shoot someone on 5th Avenue in New York City and maintain his popularity. If he could shoot someone on 5th Avenue, well, he can […] Read more »
These 17 Swing Voters Have a Very Clear Message for Donald Trump
When Donald Trump was president, you rarely heard Trump voters blame him when anything went wrong; it was the Democrats’ fault, usually, or the deep state or Robert Mueller or the F.B.I. or was due to any number of conspiracy theories. Which is why it was striking, during our focus […] Read more »
Humility Beat Hubris (For Now)
On November 8th, humility beat hubris. The election was not a triumph for professionals of either party who, with a few exceptions, didn’t see it coming. It is hard to claim credit for something you didn’t see. Meanwhile, voters, who generally lack hubris, quietly took a stand, particularly those in […] Read more »
How Much Did a ‘Dobbs Effect’ Blunt the Red Wave?
The expectations for 2022 midterms were set early on. The Democratic Party was expected to easily lose control of the House and potentially the Senate as a result of lackluster approval ratings for Joe Biden and concerns about issues like crime and inflation. But then came the end of Roe […] Read more »