A key base of support for the Democratic Party, black America, is lagging in its recovery from the recession and demanding more attention to economic issues than white voters. That divide could complicate presidential contenders’ attempts to woo African-American votes in 2020. A decade after the financial crisis, with national […] Read more »
The Democratic Electorate
The current conventional wisdom, expressed for example in this NYT Upshot piece, as well as by Bret Stephens on MSNBC yesterday (June 5) is that the vocal “left” of the Democratic party has lost touch with the authentic base of the party, and therefore risks re-electing Trump by veering too […] Read more »
When It Comes to the Senate, the Democrats Have Their Work Cut Out for Them
For Democrats to overcome the Republican advantage in the struggle for control of the Senate, they will need a massive turnout effort and a wave election even more powerful than the one that won them the House in 2018. … Political polarization and the partisan division that comes with it […] Read more »
Democrats Learned the Wrong Lesson From Clinton’s Impeachment
Democrats debating whether to impeach Donald Trump may be misreading the evidence from the last time the House tried to remove a president. It’s become conventional wisdom—not only among Democrats but also among many political analysts—that House Republicans paid a severe electoral price for moving against Bill Clinton in 1998, […] Read more »
Could Texas Be a Swing State in 2020?
The well-regarded survey research center at Quinnipiac University released a poll of Texas on Wednesday that attracted some attention around the political world. It showed Joe Biden leading Donald Trump in the state by 4 percentage points (48 percent to 44 percent) in a 2020 trial heat, with other major […] Read more »
The Shadow of 1998
The Democrats’ 40-seat net gain in the House last fall was the latest example of the midterm election serving as a check on the White House. Since the Civil War, there have now been 40 midterms, and the president’s party has lost ground in the House in 37 of those […] Read more »