The Democrats’ 40-seat net gain in the House last fall was the latest example of the midterm election serving as a check on the White House.
Since the Civil War, there have now been 40 midterms, and the president’s party has lost ground in the House in 37 of those elections.
Yet one of those exceptions was recent, and it’s an election that has been and will be referenced a lot as House Democrats consider whether to impeach President Donald Trump: 1998.
That year, Democrats won four more seats than they had won in 1996, providing a rare exception to the usual midterm rule. That election took place under the shadow of impeachment: Independent counsel Kenneth Starr submitted his report laying out 11 possible grounds for impeaching President Bill Clinton in September, and the GOP-controlled House voted to open impeachment proceedings against Clinton in early October. As Democrats ponder whether to open such proceedings against President Donald Trump, the specter of 1998 hangs over the choice. CONT.
Kyle Kondik, Sabato’s Crystal Ball