The campaign for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination is already underway, although the presence of Donald Trump means it’s not as open as it would normally be. Ron DeSantis seems to have moved to the top of the field–Predicit has him at 0.23, with Trump at 0.31 and everyone else […] Read more »
What we learned about the urban/rural political divide in Washington
For years, the “Cascade Curtain” has been a favored way to describe Washington state politics — Republican on the dry side of the mountains, Democratic on the wet side. Within that framework the “suburban crescent” — the area surrounding Seattle — was an exception, the place in western Washington where […] Read more »
What Virginia Tells Us About the Midterms
Off-year elections are a Rosetta Stone for analysts and operatives. While their political significance is universally overstated, these elections drive media narratives and offer clues as to how the political environment is shaping up for the midterm elections in 2022. In addition to the California recall election on September 14, […] Read more »
To Predict Biden’s Political Fate, Keep an Eye on Independents
What is potentially so damaging for President Biden and Democrats isn’t so much the substance of the decision to pull out of Afghanistan. After all, any chance of the conflict turning out well ended about 15 years ago. It was the shambolic execution of it. The intelligence community, Pentagon officials, […] Read more »
How Donald Trump Turned Off Swing Voters in 2020
Key Points• The number of swing voters — those who change their minds between presidential elections — has been declining over time.• However, there are still some swing voters, and they can be decisive in the nation’s highly competitive presidential elections.• Swing voters helped Joe Biden win the White House, […] Read more »
Redistricting in America, Part Six: The Great Lakes
Key Points• This week, we’re looking at redistricting in seven Midwest/Great Lakes states: Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.• The highly competitive region was a collective nailbiter for president, and Republicans hold an overall House edge there, though not as large as earlier last decade.• Illinois is really […] Read more »