Ron DeSantis is expected to enter the 2024 presidential race this week. But the Florida governor begins his campaign to win the GOP nomination with his poll numbers flailing and with former President Donald Trump as the clear primary front-runner. Still, DeSantis remains by far the best hope for anti-Trump […] Read more »
The Most Jarring — And Revealing — Moment from Trump’s CNN Town Hall
In CNN’s tumultuous town hall last week with Donald Trump, the most jarring moment was the most revealing. For many viewers, an especially discordant exchange came when some of the New Hampshire Republicans in the studio audience laughed and cheered as the former president disparaged E. Jean Carroll, the woman […] Read more »
What Happened in 2022
The 2022 election defied conventional wisdom and historical trends. In a typical midterm election year with one-party control of the presidency, House and Senate, the incumbent party would expect major losses. Instead, Democrats re-elected every incumbent senator and expanded their Senate majority by a seat, won the overwhelming majority of […] Read more »
Will 2024 be a personality contest or a policy debate?
Here are a few thoughts this week as we await the outcome of the debt ceiling battle. What will the 2024 election be about? It may seem obvious to ask this most basic of questions about the next election, but the answer will likely decide its outcome. So, perhaps, a […] Read more »
The demographic makeup of the country’s voters continues to shift. That creates headwinds for Republicans
Demographic change continued to chip away at the cornerstone of the Republican electoral coalition in 2022, a new analysis of Census data has found. White voters without a four-year college degree, the indispensable core of the modern GOP coalition, declined in 2022 as a share of both actual and eligible […] Read more »
What GOP Voters Have Told Me Since Trump’s Indictment
Donald Trump is the clear GOP front-runner for 2024. This isn’t news—he has dominated most polling since the day Joe Biden was sworn in. Despite leading the GOP to a historically bad midterm, being saddled with a dismal 25 percent approval rating, and becoming the first former president to be […] Read more »