Senate Rating Changes: Arizona, Pennsylvania to Leans Democratic

Key Points• We are moving the Senate races in Arizona and Pennsylvania from Toss-up to Leans Democratic on account of candidate weaknesses for Republicans in both states and what appears to be a not-as-bleak environment for Democrats.• The overall race for the Senate remains a Toss-up, with 49 seats at […] Read more »

Fox News Poll: Oz supporters lack enthusiasm in Pennsylvania Senate race

Democrats hold the advantage in battleground Pennsylvania, as GOP candidates haven’t closed the sale with Republican voters. In the U.S. Senate race, Democrat John Fetterman holds an 11-point lead over Republican Mehmet Oz, 47%-36%, in a Fox News poll released Thursday. Three percent back independent candidate Everett Stern and 13% […] Read more »

How ‘Stop the Steal’ Captured the American Right

… Trump had jolted American politics, probably irrevocably, by urging his supporters to see themselves as an American people distinct from the American population — a people whose particular loyalties, identities and values designated them as the nation’s true inheritors, regardless of what the ballots might have said. If this […] Read more »

This may be Democrats’ only chance to blunt a red wave in November

To avoid the worst-case scenario in November, Democrats must defy one of the most powerful trends shaping modern congressional elections. Recent polls have provided them a glimmer of optimism that they might do just that. That trend is the tightening correlation between voters’ attitudes toward a president and their support […] Read more »

Focus Group Report: Pro-Choice Democrats and Republicans on Abortion

On June 15, 2022, GBAO conducted three focus groups online with Democratic and Republican women who varied across demographics—age, education, and race. Key takeaways• Among those who are pro-choice, abortion is a highly salient issue.• Most would feel “revolted” or “angry” if Roe were overturned.• There is some division as […] Read more »

Will the Democrats’ working-class strategy pay off?

There has been plenty of talk over the past few years about the Democrats’ problems appealing to white, blue-collar voters. … November’s midterm elections will present something of a test for Democratic strategists. What kind of coalition — and candidates — will get the party back on a winning track? […] Read more »