In Pennsylvania and nationally, Trump’s problems with suburban voters blunt his ascent

… In broad strokes, Trump and Clinton supporters are seldom near each other in much of the country. The Republican dominates rural, white America; the Democrat overwhelmingly wins the cities with their higher minority populations. But in this slice of Pennsylvania north and west of Philadelphia, where the suburbs meet […] Read more »

Republicans’ Voter Registration Gains Probably Aren’t Gains At All

Republicans and the Trump campaign — facing severe polling, staff and advertising disadvantages — might be tempted to point to party voter registration trends as a sign of life and evidence of an underrated ground effort. … Party registration can often be a lagging, rather than leading, indicator. As southern […] Read more »

Ticket-Splitters Could Be Key for Vulnerable GOP Senate Incumbents

Of all the campaign issues that incumbent Republican senators face in 2016, the most vexing may be Donald Trump. As their party’s presidential nominee sinks in the polls, Republican senators in battleground states must decide if they should align with him or hitch their fortunes to that rarest group of […] Read more »

Blue Corners of Pennsylvania Went Red, But Won’t Matter

The lunch group in Monessen, Pennsylvania, is evenly divided between Trump supporters and Trump opponents. But the dark mood across the whole room suggests why this working-class town might end up favoring him in November. … This is Westmoreland County. Here and in the adjacent struggling southwestern Pennsylvania counties, Donald […] Read more »